All climate change is local: using
physiology and biophysics to explore a changing world
1University of South Carolina, USA, 2Keck Science Center, The Claremont Colleges, California, USA and 3Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Aridas, Coquimbo, Chile
Understanding the mechanisms by which organisms respond to their physical environment is a powerful tool for forecasting the impacts of climate change on ecosystems. Global climate change is expected to have enormous influences on most species. In intertidal ecosystems, species range shifts of up to 50 km/decade are already occurring. However, despite the pervasive effects of climate change on a global scale, organisms respond physiologically and behaviorally only to the very local characteristics of their immediate environment. Predicting where, when and with what magnitude the likelihood of changes in community structure are likely to occur requires that we understand how large-scale processes (Ôenvironmental signalsÕ) are downscaled to the level of the organism.
Biophysical models (models that track heat inputs and outputs) provide a key tool for analyzing how environmental signals drive organism and ecosystem processes. Importantly, such approaches show that predictions cannot always be made through correlations with large-scale signals, such as those measured by buoy or satellite. While such measurements are a vital tool for measuring environmental parameters over large spatial and long temporal scales, they are not sufficient for predicting organism responses.
While aspects of climate change
such as temperature, salinity and ocean chemistry cannot be modified on a local
level, an explicit understanding of where these impacts occur can nevertheless
inform management and policy. By understanding how factors such as body
temperature interact with stressors such as nutrient load, fishing pressure and
sedimentation, we can triage specific locations by modifying these latter stressors
through effective management.